Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Welcome to A2 Applied Business & Sales Forecasting

A2 Applied Business

Starting the year as we mean to go on.......
Getting to know you:
In the following clip Michael Jordan explains what is the key to success.
What do you think he is going to say?
  

What characterises Jordan's attitude - and what can you learn from it?
We want our students to see learning as being about endurance, working hard, practising, and making mistakes - rather than being about natural ability.
How can Ronaldo add to this discussion?



How to get going with work

How to avoid procrastinating: Charlie explains why we procrastinate, and suggests ways to make ourselves more productive with our time:
Verb:procrastinate


Delay, put off doing something, postpone action, defer action, use delaying tactics, stall, play for time, play a waiting game, drag one's feet/heels,take one's time.



How to create and stick to new habits:

How to create habits that you stick to: in the following clip, Charlie explains how using Jerry Seinfeld's 'Don't break the chain' idea has helped him to create and stick to new habits:



Susan and Robert:


Understanding Plagiarism:




ABUS5 - Business Decision Making

5.1 Decision-making and the marketing function.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVblWq3tDwY

What is your definition of 'marketing'?

Noun: Marketing
The action or business of promoting and selling products or services, including market research and advertising.
Cadburys has a ‘brand manager’ for each product within its portfolio.
How many different Cadbury products can you think of?


Each brand manager will focus on the likely future sales of the product they are responsible for.

Imagine this was your role for Creme Eggs (with a £60,000 salary, at least.)

What are the implications for Cadbury of a changing sales forecast for the products they make?

A sales forecast will have an impact on:

1. Investment decisions.
2. The number and type of staff that are required.
3. The four Ps.

Methods of forecasting sales:

For a new product Test Marketing may be used.


For an existing product a 'moving average' is a good way to smooth out fluctuations in sales to allow for a prediction of future sales. This is technically known as time series analysis.



In the following video a Centred Moving Average is discussed. Your exam board does not expect you to take this extra step. We will discuss this in class.


Qualitative sales forecasting:

This may involve panel surveys (focus groups):


Or industry experts (the Delphi technique). A nice summary of this technique here.


Advantages and disadvantages of the Delphi technique. Details here.